Predict Your World Cup Winner!

Predict Your World Cup Winner!


Last time we started to look behind the scenes of the rather depressing sounding 4% chance Simon Gleave’ of Gracenote had given England to win the World Cup in Russia.

To celebrate England’s campaign getting underway, and as promised last time, we are giving away our “Magic World Cup Predictor Tool Thingy” to our newsletter subscribers for FREE.

It is an Excel tool for you to predict the winning odds for your favourite team!

It works like this.

First, simply select your team:


The Gracenote, Group stage (GRP) predicted odds are automatically loaded.


From the dropdown menus, select who your team will play in each stage:


The head-to-head stats we inferred last time are then automatically loaded.

You can instantly see your teams overall chances.

Don’t like the head-to-head stats?

Think you know better?

Recent games making you think your team has a better chance?

Then set your own odds using the sliders:

You can see the odds of winning overall change instantly.

Neat hey!

It’s not over there.

Once the World Cup competition is underway properly, track how your teams odds improve as they pass through each stage:

… until your team becomes 100% the winner!

Easy on a spreadsheet, of course!


Hopefully you’ll see how a simple tool like this, can start to be really useful in understanding what to expect.

The tool lets you investigate lots of different scenarios.

You can see the sensitivity in how slight changes in the odds effect your teams chances.

Or not.

You can experiment to work out the best or worst case scenarios.

You can see who will have a harder or easier run, once the group stages are done.

You can tweak the head-to-head odds quickly to see the differences.

A bit of fun.

However, hopefully it gives you some good ideas to apply back your own work.

And all this because Simon gave England such duff odds!


And as promised,

Our prediction:

Spain for the win!


P.S. About the Tool

The Excel tool is purposely built to not include VBA macros. This can cause issues with IT teams in many organisations.

Whilst the main tab is protected, there is no password. It is simply done to protect the formatting.

Talking of formatting, the screen images are from Mac Excel. It works fine in Windows Excel too but the checkboxes might be a bit small and the sliders slightly differently styled.

The tool is therefore all open for you to look at and hopefully take inspiration back into your own applications.

The tool is for your use and subject only to our fair use end user licence agreement.




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